By The Numbers: Week 3, 2019

Well, I went ahead and spaced out on the fact that it was Thursday all day yesterday, until I started seeing football stuff popping up on social media. I managed to never miss a Thursday night pick last year, but only three weeks in I missed. Honestly it’s been kind of nice just relaxing when I have time off instead of having to crank out blog posts. It’s also nice to be in a good place as far as not feeling guilty about not posting or not playing games or whatever. Sometimes I pressure myself too much over my hobbies. Nonetheless, I have some grading to do for last week, and then I’ll make some picks for this weekend. I should note that I would have picked the Titans to beat the Jags anyway, so it would have just been a point against me regardless. Anyway, on with my scores:

Panthers 27, Buccs 24
Cowboys 30, Redskins 14 – Correct
Titans 20, Colts 17
Seahawks 23, Steelers 13 – Correct
Bills 24, Giants 20 – Correct
Patriots 50, Dolphins 3 – Correct
Texans 24, Jags 21 – Correct
Packers 28, Vikings 14 – Correct
Lions 20, Chargers 10 – Correct
49ers 20, Bengals 13 – Correct
Ravens 31, Cards 20 – Correct
Chiefs 35, Raiders 21 – Correct
Saints 33, Rams 24
Bears 24, Broncos 17 – Correct
Eagles 27, Falcons 23
Browns 14, Jets 13 – Correct

This week’s score: 12-4
Season score: 23-9

Not a bad week, I actually think I would have gotten at least one more of these correct were it not for the fact that I thought the Panthers would bounce back after a week 1 loss, and I don’t think the Rams would have done so well in their game against the Saints had Drew Brees not been injured. Whatever the case, I’ve been doing well to start off the season. Let’s make some picks for week 3:

Eagles 21, Lions 14
Patriots 35, Jets 13
Vikings 24, Raiders 10
Chiefs 24, Ravens 21
Falcons 27, Colts 20
Packers 28, Broncos 12
Cowboys 31, Dolphins 7
Bills 26, Bengals 9
Buccs 20, Giants 10
Panthers 23, Cards 17
49ers 24, Steelers 21
Seahawks 30, Saints 14
Texans 20, Chargers 17
Rams 21, Browns 20
Bears 17, Redskins 13

Clearly, having missed the pick on Thursday, I won’t count it in my points, unless someone makes a compelling argument as to why I should instead include in in the loss column. I’m fine either way, honestly. Just want to be held accountable. I think my team is looking good two weeks deep, and I think the Broncos should be another win. We haven’t started off this hot in a few years so it’s exciting. The defense is good for once. We still have an HOF Quarterback. I think we might actually go places this year, but I’m still not holding my breath until we’re well into December. Fingers crossed we make it that far without major incident.

By The Numbers: Week 2, 2019

Now that was a nice first weekend of football! Not only did my team, the Green Bay Packers manage to grab a win, I was more impressed by our defensive in a mostly defensive game. The Smith brothers are no joke it seems, as they combined for a couple of sacks and a bunch of hits/hurries. We weren’t bad in the run game, and I didn’t see many long passes getting anywhere. I’m not going to say they’re elite just yet, but I can’t believe how much better they look compared to last year. The offense was sputtering far too often, but I attribute that to the fact that Aaron Rodgers and most of the starters didn’t play preseason snaps so the chemistry is off. I’m sure next week we’ll see something better offensively. There was a picture perfect drive that took 1:35 to complete, but outside of a that the only points put up was a field goal in the 4th quarter. I suspect we’ll see more action next week, but it has to start with the run game, certainly. I actually watched several other games this weekend because my game was on Thursday and on Sunday after work I was in the mood to watch more. I caught parts of a few games, but I was pretty impressed by Dallas as well, and I hate saying that. Still, they looked good but the Giants haven’t been too hot for a few seasons so that could be why. There were a few blowout scores I wouldn’t have seen coming, and in the end the Patriots beat the Steelers in this sort of fashion as well. I caught the Saints/Texans game on Monday night but didn’t stay up to watch the Broncos lose to the Raiders. The former was a great game with a bunch of lead changes in the 4th quarter, but the Saints pulled out the victory. Anyway, let’s score last week’s picks:

Packers 35, Bears 27 – Correct
Rams 24, Panthers 20 – Correct
Redskins 21, Eagles 17
Bills 20, Jets 10 – Correct
Vikings 27, Falcons 21 – Correct
Ravens 30, Dolphins 7 – Correct
Chiefs 35, Jags 21 – Correct
Browns 17, Titans 10
Chargers 20, Colts 13 – Correct
Seahawks 23, Bengals 14 – Correct
49ers 21, Buccs 20 – Correct
Cowboys 21, Giants 9 – Correct
Lions 20, Cardinals 16
Steelers 28, Patriots 26
Saints 31, Texans 17 – Correct
Broncos 24, Raiders 13

So I ended up going 11-5, which is a good enough score to get into the playoffs. Most of the scores were way off, but I did sort of predict the Ravens blowing out the Dolphins, though it was by an even larger margin. Sad times. I really thought the Browns might come out swinging with all of the shit talking that’s been going on, but then they just proved to be as bad as ever, losing to the so-so Titans. The Lions – Cardinals game ended up being the lone tie of the week, and the only one of the season so far. And for those of you still laughing at the Browns, just imagine how the Steelers felt having the same 30 point deficit against the hated Patriots? Whatever the case, it was an exciting football weekend and I’m looking forward to Thursday night already. Let’s make some picks for the upcoming weekend:

Panthers 27, Buccs 24
Cowboys 30, Redskins 14
Titans 20, Colts 17
Seahawks 23, Steelers 13
Bills 24, Giants 20
Patriots 50, Dolphins 3
Texans 24, Jags 21
Packers 28, Vikings 14
Lions 20, Chargers 10
49ers 20, Bengals 13
Ravens 31, Cards 20
Chiefs 35, Raiders 21
Saints 33, Rams 24
Bears 24, Broncos 17
Eagles 27, Falcons 23
Browns 14, Jets 13

Going to go out on a limb and assume the Browns will pull it together. Otherwise pretty predictable things. I suspect the Packers will catch the Vikings off guard, despite having some footage to study of the new defense. If the offense can get going sooner and the defense plays a similar game, we just might get ahead into first place in the division early into the season, and that would be sweet. We’ll see how I do, will check back in next week.

By The Numbers: Week 1, 2019

Well well well, look at the time. It’s September already, and you know what that means, right? That’s right, it’s time for the 2019 NFL season to kick off! As such, the inaugural post for this column will kick off as well (yes, I know I wrote something last month but that was mainly to pad my post count for the month). The Packers are looking primed to go places in 2019, and I hope that I’m right in thinking we might have a higher end offense and defense. The team simply looks better all around, along with having a decent schedule that leads me to believe we can make the playoffs for the first time in a couple of years. The season starts with the Packers facing the Bears at Solider Field — a fitting beginning to the 100th NFL season with two teams around the same age. I am definitely looking forward to this game and am hoping that many of my questions about the team will be answered. With that said, a little refresher on what to expect from this column in the coming months:

  • I make my picks for winners and losers of each individual game week by week. I also take a stab at the game’s final score.
  • I score myself each week in a recap before making picks for the upcoming week.
  • Come playoff time, I make picks on the games prior to that weekend. This all culminates in my pick for the winner of the Superbowl.
  • After the season is over, I do a big summary post where I tally up my correct and incorrect picks, scoring correct ones with a point and getting bonus points for correct scores (which rarely happens).

So far I have improved year over year during the time I’ve been doing this column in this format. I did start it several years ago and used to only provide some commentary on games, and then made picks but didn’t keep score. Things are more interesting this way, even if it is just a competition against myself. So now you’ll know what to expect from By The Numbers — if you aren’t a football fan, you’ll probably want to skip these. Let’s get on with my picks for week 1:

Packers 35, Bears 27
Rams 24, Panthers 20
Redskins 21, Eagles 17
Bills 20, Jets 10
Vikings 27, Falcons 21
Ravens 30, Dolphins 7
Chiefs 35, Jags 21
Browns 17, Titans 10
Chargers 20, Colts 13
Seahawks 23, Bengals 14
49ers 21, Buccs 20
Cowboys 21, Giants 9
Lions 20, Cardinals 16
Steelers 28, Patriots 26
Saints 31, Texans 17
Broncos 24, Raiders 13

I’ll see you guys next week, and we’ll see how I did. Until then, happy footballin’.

By The Numbers: Season Results 2018

So the 2018 season has come to a close, and that means I need to round things up with my totals for the year and see how I stacked up to last season’s scores. First, let’s start with the playoffs breakdown, which I did a little differently this year. Last year I ended up making all of my playoff predictions in a single post, and well, that was probably stupid. As such, I ended up with completely different teams in different rounds and basically screwed myself out of points. This year, I made my picks before each weekend so as to maximize my chances at making the right picks. Whatever the case, I ended up doing okay, so let’s take a closer look:

Playoff Picks:

Wildcard Round:

Texans 30, Colts 24
Cowboys 21, Seahawks 20 – Correct, almost got the score right too!
Ravens 28, Chargers 24
Bears 27, Eagles 21

Divisional Round:

Chiefs 24, Colts 20 – Correct
Rams 30, Cowboys 21 – Correct
Patriots 27, Chargers 14 – Correct
Saints 31, Eagles 24 – Correct

Championship Games:

Patriots 31, Chiefs 28 – Correct
Saints 30, Rams 27

Superbowl LIII:

Rams 30, Patriots 24

Post Season Score: 6-5

Going 6-5 in the post season wasn’t too bad, but I have to say that I think things should have gone differently in the Championship games in particular. I also absolutely hated this year’s Superbowl, but there’s nothing we can do about that now, is there. Let’s recap my regular season weekly scores next:

Regular Season Weekly Scores:

Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 7-9
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 6-9
Week 6: 8-7
Week 7: 10-4
Week 8: 11-3
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 8-6
Week 11: 6-7
Week 12: 7-8
Week 13: 9-7
Week 14: 7-8
Week 15: 9-6
Week 16: 11-5
Week 17: 12-4

Regular Season Total: 147-107 (apparently made a math error somewhere throughout the season so this doesn’t match my total in the last regular season post)
Combined Total: 153-112

Compared to last year’s total: 149-118, I had an increase of 6 correct calls.

That seems like a very small increase, given that I didn’t even make picks in the last week of last season, and I also made the mistake of picking all of the post season games in one post. Whatever the case, I still improved year over year, so for that I’m happy. I guess I’ll have to try to outdo myself again for the 2019 season, but we have a good 8 months to wait until I can get started. How about that Superbowl though? Man, talk about boring! I took until the forth quarter until we saw any real action, and given two of the highest scoring offenses, I was surprised to see it go down the way it did. The fifty third Superbowl went down in the annals as the lowest scoring big game of all time, and that’s pretty pathetic. You know what else is lame? The Patriots now have six rings, and Tom Brady gave them all six. Excuse me while I clean up this vomit off of my shirt.

See you next year.

By The Numbers: Superbowl LII

I finally managed to watch some playoff football this weekend, and wow, talk about controversy! Firstly, let’s check my picks and then we’ll get to the details.

Patriots 31, Chiefs 28 – Correct
Saints 30, Rams 27

I almost managed to pick both games correctly, but honestly the results should have been reversed. The Saints were completely robbed, when this happened:

How that doesn’t get called, I’ll never know. Whatever the case, this ended with them having to kick a field goal, and magically the Rams managed to get down the field in under two minutes in order to kick for the tie. Apparently the Saints didn’t put up much of a struggle in Overtime, but I didn’t catch that part. I did however watch the Pats/Chiefs game from start to finish, and it was turning into a good game by the fourth quarter. The Chiefs were simply fucked by officiating. First there was this:

Seriously, this is worse than the penalties to Clay Matthews that were happening at the beginning of the season. Where was he being roughed up? What a joke. Then to make things worse, this put the Patriots in position to tie the game and send it to overtime, but then a late flag comes down after the Chiefs intercepted Brady with under a minute to play in regulation. They should have sealed the deal right there, and honestly we should be seeing an NO/KC superbowl rather than the one we’re getting.

My pick for the winner of the Superbowl:

Rams 30, Patriots 24

I’ll probably watch it still, but I’m over this season. I can’t wait for September. After the big game I’ll do my tabulations for my season and this column will go back into hibernation.